It's the Law!!
Several years ago, I accompanied a policeman on his night shift. I was amazed to learn that he knew many of the characters on the street by their first name. When I asked him how he knew them he replied, "I've arrested them several times." I have questioned other policemen about this phenomenon and they generally agree that the number of crimes far surpasses the actual number of criminals. One even suggested that, in our city of 120,000 people, if it were possible to relocate one hundred known scofflaws to a desert isle, our crime rate would be reduced by half.
That idea is appealing, perhaps, but things like that have been done in the past without a great degree of success. A number of nations have exported criminals to foreign lands without any kind of dramatic lowering of their crime rates. Our national network of prisons can be considered islands of exile. We spend billions of dollars annually in this country on law enforcement personnel, facilities and equipment. When crime rates go up enforcement budgets go up. It looks like we are trying very hard to reduce crime in our nation, but what we are doing doesn’t seem to be working very well.
An internet search indicated there are about 500 violent crimes for every 100,000 people in our country every year. That means about a half a percent of our population are victims of violent crime every year. I might guess that half of all violent crimes get reported. I would assume that a lot of bar-fights and domestic abuse don’t get reported. Statistically, that percentage is pretty good. If the data were plotted on a standard distribution curve, it would fall beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean -- well into the outlier range of behavior. Maybe that’s pretty good considering that human beings seem to have such a violent nature. Unfortunately, it still represents a million and a half victims, a million and a half perpetrators and collateral injury that can only be estimated.
A similar search indicated that property crimes average around 4,000 per 100,000 people. That means about four percent of our population are victims of a property crime every year. I might venture to guess that half of such crimes go unreported or undetected. Assuming that every crime has both a victim and a perpetrator, the percentage of our population involved in property crimes every year is about sixteen percent. Statistically, that begins to fall within the range of normal behavior - within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
Quite a few crimes either have no victim or the surrounding population becomes the victim. The numbers of these crimes may be greater than the numbers of violent crimes and property crimes combined. No doubt someone has tallied them up – I haven’t checked -- my point is already apparent.
My point is that while we consider ourselves to be a law-abiding nation, criminal behavior has increased sufficiently to be within the statistically accepted range of normal behavior. Sure, the crime numbers go up and down some, from time to time, but rarely by more than fifty percent. But we are still a nation where crime has become normal and that situation is unacceptable.
That idea is appealing, perhaps, but things like that have been done in the past without a great degree of success. A number of nations have exported criminals to foreign lands without any kind of dramatic lowering of their crime rates. Our national network of prisons can be considered islands of exile. We spend billions of dollars annually in this country on law enforcement personnel, facilities and equipment. When crime rates go up enforcement budgets go up. It looks like we are trying very hard to reduce crime in our nation, but what we are doing doesn’t seem to be working very well.
An internet search indicated there are about 500 violent crimes for every 100,000 people in our country every year. That means about a half a percent of our population are victims of violent crime every year. I might guess that half of all violent crimes get reported. I would assume that a lot of bar-fights and domestic abuse don’t get reported. Statistically, that percentage is pretty good. If the data were plotted on a standard distribution curve, it would fall beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean -- well into the outlier range of behavior. Maybe that’s pretty good considering that human beings seem to have such a violent nature. Unfortunately, it still represents a million and a half victims, a million and a half perpetrators and collateral injury that can only be estimated.
A similar search indicated that property crimes average around 4,000 per 100,000 people. That means about four percent of our population are victims of a property crime every year. I might venture to guess that half of such crimes go unreported or undetected. Assuming that every crime has both a victim and a perpetrator, the percentage of our population involved in property crimes every year is about sixteen percent. Statistically, that begins to fall within the range of normal behavior - within 2 standard deviations of the mean.
Quite a few crimes either have no victim or the surrounding population becomes the victim. The numbers of these crimes may be greater than the numbers of violent crimes and property crimes combined. No doubt someone has tallied them up – I haven’t checked -- my point is already apparent.
My point is that while we consider ourselves to be a law-abiding nation, criminal behavior has increased sufficiently to be within the statistically accepted range of normal behavior. Sure, the crime numbers go up and down some, from time to time, but rarely by more than fifty percent. But we are still a nation where crime has become normal and that situation is unacceptable.
posted by Sam | 6:41 AM
1 Comments:
So.. how closely does the criminal population match the pareto principle? Do 20% of people do 80% of the crime?
It would be interesting to see..
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